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A New Theory of Risk and Rating, by Jacek Marczyk
PDF Download A New Theory of Risk and Rating, by Jacek Marczyk
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The planetary magnitude of the economic meltdown hints eloquently that conventional methods of risk management and rating need to be reviewed. In an increasingly turbulent economy a new look at uncertainty and risk is mandatory as traditional approaches have been designed for a less severe and chaotic context. The book introduces a radically innovative approach to uncertainty and illustrates how complexity management assumes a modern form of risk management which is particularly suited for a turbulent economy. Innovative complexity-based rating schemes, such as on-line self-rating or holistic rating are introduced. The book advocates that thanks to objective and verifiable ratings, which are accessible to even the smallest of companies, it is possible to contribute to a more stable and sustainable global economy. Quantitative means of measuring the fragility and stability of corporations are introduced as well as an innovative complexity-based early-warning system.
- Sales Rank: #1407715 in eBooks
- Published on: 2010-11-15
- Released on: 2010-11-15
- Format: Kindle eBook
Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Required reading for Global Financial Sector and risk professionals
By David G Wilson
If Nassim Taleb had written this it would be required reading!
This book illustrates the limitations of the conventional approach to rating risk, particularly financial and insurance risk.
If current risk rating is based upon the "probability of possibilities" from historic data that, predominantly relates to an era of linear systems it is ill-equipped to address dynamic (non-linear) systems...and these are exactly what we have to deal with in an inter-connected world! Randomness is not merely about risk but uncertainty.
Risk Management as we know it needs to embrace complexity as a major business threat that can, now, be measured to ensure structural stability and managed to avoid collapse. Unmeasured in remains in the realms of uncertainty!
In an era of systemic risk - that travels at breakneck speed destroying structure - fragile organisations and their ecosystems can act as an "accelerant" - robust systems can act as "fire-breaks".
Financial Institutions who carry business risks NEED to, at least, supplement their current rating bases to ensure capital adequacy and to continue to offer relevant solutions for now and in the future.
As someone who has no formal scientific training I found it surprisingly easy to follow despite flirtations with Thermodynamics, Complexity, Systems, Information Theories and Zadeh's Principle of Incompatibility.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
A key innovative approach to the risk that each corporation should adopted
By Giuseppe Graci
The financial crisis has showed the limits and the constraints of the current models used to measure the level of reliability and sustainability of a product or a company or a country. The PoD, in a turbulent environment, where the level of uncertainty has reached unexpected levels, becomes unreliable because the speed of the change of the environment is so fast that when a rating has been issued the rating isn't already aligned to context in which the company runs its business.
The novel theory, illustrated in the book, gives an answer to why the current techniques have failed and in meantime provides a new measure of the risks based on the complexity. Complexity, although it has a relevant role in business strategies and in company governance, doesn't have the same value as other business metrics do. Complexity is a key feature and "Meta KPI" of the level of sustainability of any business model.
As it's well explained in the book, the excessive complexity reflects chaos-dominated systems, in which the structure of the business model is weak. Rapid variations of complexity, independently of whether it is rise or fall, generally point to unstable and unhealthy systems.
The examples in the book, clearly, explain the impacts and the consequences of complexity on business and in meantime give sound indications on how the company can deal with unforeseeable and unexpected events which have characterized the recent years. This fragility, as the book highlights, if not managed, can have serious consequences which, in some cases, can be catastrophic.
Therefore, in order to compete in a turbulent and uncertain environment the conditio sine qua non is that complexity must be part of the critical success factors and business metrics already used by the management of the company.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Besides of successfully translating the complexity paradox to an intelligible ...
By Americo Ribeiro
Besides of successfully translating the complexity paradox to an intelligible language from the perspective of Risk Management in Finance, "A New Theory of Risk and Rating" goes further and brings mighty contributions to the efforts of modern society towards establishing new risk rating standards and of resilience metrics for business and global economy.
The reader will find coherent dissertation on complexity dynamics, real examples of information-based systems structures and a metrics system for correlation between variables which drive and trigger complexity.
As the entire research led by Dr Marczyk, this book is all about practical application of a new calculation technology, in specific of Complexity management research field. (also look for Practical Complexity Management and Practical Complexity Management Part II)
One can really test and apply those proposed concepts, rather than other publicly available theories in the Complexity management domain, which do not leave nor cross the philosophical plan and of academia debate.
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